Fiji is hosting the annual Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting this week, the first in-person summit since 2019, though not all of the eighteen member states are attending. Kiribati and the Marshall Islands are absent amid concerns that the forum had not adequately addressed the interests of Micronesian countries, which had previously threatened to leave the body over the rules for rotating the secretary-general.

The absence of two Micronesian countries will not be the only source of concern at this year’s meeting. The controversial security agreement that Solomon Islands signed with China in March will be a central item of discussion. Other states will be worried that in seeking to enhance its own security, Honiara has threatened wider regional security. 

Due to the region becoming increasingly contested, Pacific island countries decided that it is best that both China and the United States not attend the meeting as dialogue partners. Other dialogue partners like the European Union and Japan have also been excluded to be consistent. The implication is that this year’s meeting requires a strong consensus on a number of critical issues, and member states need to work without distraction. 

The last in-person meeting in Tuvalu was notable for a lack of consensus from Australia on climate change in the forum’s communiqué. The new Australian government has signalled that it is willing to be more cooperative on what Pacific island countries consider to be their primary security threat. 

Marles in Washington

The Albanese government is continuing its international outreach with defence minister, Richard Marles, travelling to the United States this week. Marles will meet with his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, as well as members of Congress. Alongside general alliance maintenance, Marles will be seeking concrete objectives for the AUKUS agreement as the Australian government chooses between a US or British design for its new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. 

In an address on Tuesday at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Marles said that the Indo-Pacific is currently witnessing “a military build-up occurring at a rate unseen since World War II”. Although he didn’t directly mention China’s designs on Taiwan, he highlighted Russia’s willingness to risk conflict, and that the Australia–US alliance was central to “avoiding a catastrophic failure of deterrence” in our region. 

Although Marles stressed that the alliance had always transcended partisan politics, Australia must not be naive about how the current turbulence in American domestic politics could reshape the way the US behaves internationally, and what kind of state it is. This has profound implications for Australia’s foreign and defence policies. Marles’ claim that the alliance is built on a shared commitment to democracy is a mantra Australian politicians are accustomed to repeating, but one that is now based more on hope than confidence. 

China’s four grievances

Australia’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, and her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, met on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ summit in Indonesia last week.  

During the meeting – the first high-level meeting between Australian and Chinese officials in more than three years – Wang insisted that the breakdown in relations was solely due to Australia’s behaviour. He outlined four themes that could mend the relationship: that Australia develops a “correct understanding of China” and “accumulate positive energy”; that common ground should be sought while recognising difference; that third parties should not be involved – most likely a reference to the competition for influence in the Pacific; and finally, Australia should not ferment negative public opinion of China. 

Of these four themes, the only one Australia could find agreeable is seeking common ground while recognising difference. The first and fourth points are subjective perspectives of Beijing’s, while the third conflicts with Australia’s long-standing policy to maintain intimate relationships within the Pacific. 

Wang’s approach was reminiscent of the fourteen grievances handed by the Chinese embassy to Nine Media in November 2020 and highlighted the difficulties of maintaining normal relations with authoritarian regimes. An entirely sensible, albeit poorly presented, suggestion by Australia for an investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic – something that could be vital for understanding future pandemics, wherever they originate – was deemed a hostile act by China. What would be standard practice in a liberal democracy is liable to be seen as a threat to legitimacy by the Chinese Communist Party.