Notes on “The end of orthodoxy”

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This article is featured in Australian Foreign Affairs 9: Spy vs Spy. To read the full issue, log in, subscribe or buy the issue.

“The IMF has made an extraordinary shift from its pre-COVID expectations of positive per-capita income growth in 160 nations to predict negative growth in 170”: World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown, International Monetary Fund, 14 April 2020.

“A surge of financial crises across the globe has already begun”: Chatib Basri, Peter Drysdale and Adam Triggs, “Speed of the essence in Asia’s new financial corona-contagion”, The Australian Financial Review, 7 April 2020.

“Over 265 million people will face acute hunger by the end of this year”: “WFP chief warns of hunger pandemic as COVID-19 spreads (statement to UN Security Council)”, United Nations World Food Programme, Media Release, 21 April 2020.

“Our capacity to respond is affected not only by the weaker economic positions of the G20 nations and shakier balance sheets among corporates, banks and households going into the crisis, but also by a lack of global coordination”: Adam Triggs and Homi Kharas, “What the G20 should do about the triple economic shock of COVID-19”, East Asia Forum, 23 March 2020.

“Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, observes that COVID-19 has brought into ‘sharper-than-ever relief’ the characteristics of the pre-pandemic world: ‘waning American leadership, faltering global cooperation, great-power discord’”: Richard Haass, “The pandemic will accelerate history rather than reshape it”, Foreign Affairs, 7 April 2020.

“Bonnie S. Glaser, senior advisor for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, summarises bluntly: ‘The rivalry, which even before the virus extended to all aspects of the relationship – economic, military, diplomatic and ideological – will accelerate the decoupling of the two economies and deepen mistrust between the countries and their peoples’”: Bonnie S. Glaser, “US–China competition”, The World After COVID-19 (interactive feature), Lowy Institute, 17 April 2020.

“China’s suppression of information and warnings about the virus are well documented. There are also reports, including from London’s The Times in March 2020, about the ordered destruction of virus samples, compromising studies to inform the public health response”: Thomas Wright, “Stretching the international order to its breaking point”, The Atlantic, 4 April 2020 and Philip Sherwell, “Chinese scientists destroyed proof of virus in December”, The Times, 1 March 2020.

“[China is] allowing its diplomats to falsely claim that the US Army brought the virus to China”: Thomas Wright, “Stretching the international order to its breaking point”, The Atlantic, 4 April 2020.

“US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has backed claims the virus was created in a Chinese laboratory – an allegation repeated by an Australian minister despite being discounted by the US and Australian intelligence communities”: Sharri Markson, “Morrison government, intelligence agencies uneasy with US Wuhan lab leak claim”, The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2020.

“China’s recent unilateral actions in the South China Sea have included the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing vessel in the vicinity of the Paracel Islands, establishing ‘administrative districts’ on the Paracel and Spratly Islands, and warning that any attempt to deny its claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea will be doomed to fail”: “China says Vietnam’s claims in South China Sea are illegal, ‘doomed to fail’”, Reuters, 21 April 2020.

“As researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute Vicky Xiuzhong Xu argues, Chinese nationalism today is ‘centered on the narrative that China has been a victim of colonization and the current world order, and that the Communist Party is the only savior’”: Vicky Xiuzhong Xu, “China’s youth are trapped in the cult of nationalism”, Foreign Policy, 1 October 2019.

“The withdrawal from the WHO in the midst of a global pandemic is the most recent display of the administration’s rejection of the multilateral system”: Julian Borger, “Donald Trump denounces ‘globalism’ in nationalist address to UN”, The Guardian, 25 September 2019.

“China is increasing its influence in and support of the multilateral system, consistent with President Xi’s express articulation in 2017 that ‘reforming and developing the global governance system’ is a major foreign policy priority”: Rowan Callick, “WHO and China: compounding politics and policy”, The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 9 April 2020.

“China’s growing assertiveness is prompting uncertainty about its ambitions, including whether it seeks pre-eminent global leadership, and whether it wants a more illiberal form of global governance designed to suit the interests of authoritarian states”: Kristine Lee, “It’s not just the WHO: how China is moving on the whole UN”, Politico, 15 April 2020.

“As research by Brookings has shown, fiscal stimulus gives a bigger boost to economies when it is coordinated across countries”: Adam Triggs, “The economic and political case for coordinating fiscal stimulus”, Brookings, 26 November 2018.

“John McCarthy, a former ambassador and high commissioner to the United States, Indonesia and India, reminds us that ‘small and medium powers need rules more than big ones’”: John McCarthy, “Australian foreign policy beyond the pandemic”, East Asia Forum, 11 April 2020.

“While international trade grew at twice the rate of gross domestic product for half a century, the pandemic is exacerbating a retreat from globalisation”: Douglas A. Irwin, “The pandemic adds momentum to the deglobalization trend”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 23 April 2020.

“For those in the United States who have argued for [an economic] ‘decoupling’, the pandemic is ‘proof’ of the imperative”: Uri Friedman, “China hawks are calling the coronavirus a ‘wake-up call’”, The Atlantic, 11 March 2020.

“Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University, argues that the Indo-Pacific region is too large and too diverse for one country to dominate”: Rory Medcalf, Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won’t Map the Future, La Trobe University Press, Melbourne, 2020.

“Emerging economies around the world are grappling with capital outflows – at multiples of those seen in the GFC – and spiralling debt costs through a potent combination of collapsing exchange rates, loss of export income and rising bond yields”: M. Chatib Basri, Peter Drysdale and Adam Triggs, “The time to ramp up protection against Asian financial contagion is now”, Brookings, 7 April 2020.

“There is a risk that COVID-19 could lead to multiple crises – humanitarian, economic and internal security – with serious ramifications for the wider stability of the region”: see Richard Maude, “A post-COVID world and the limits of ‘America first’”, The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 6 April 2020.

“As Roland Rajah, director of the International Economics Program at the Lowy Institute, points out, both Indonesia and India are too large for Australia to play a ‘decisive role’”: Roland Rajah, “How the virus could stagger Asia’s giants”, Lowy Institute, 4 April 2020.

“[A]ssistance should be targeted at boosting healthcare resources as well as lobbying for speedy action from international financial institutions to assist Pacific economic recovery. Any perception that Australia has let its Pacific partners down at this time of need or is not listening to them could fundamentally compromise the Pacific ‘step-up’ policy”: see Pat Conroy, “Australia needs a comprehensive plan for COVID-19 in the Pacific”, The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 20 April 2020.

“We need to continue to broaden our engagement with India, including through the implementation of Peter Varghese’s India Economic Strategy, prepared for the Department of Foreign Affairs, and drawing on links enabled by the Indian diaspora here in Australia”: Peter Varghese, An India Economic Strategy to 2035: Navigating from Potential to Delivery, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, July 2018 and Penny Wong, “Speech to the Australia India Leadership Dialogue”, Melbourne, 9 December 2019.

Cover of AFA9 SPY VS SPY

This is an article from Australian Foreign Affairs 9: Spy vs Spy. To read the full issue, log in, subscribe or buy the issue.