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21 August 2019

With Jonathan Pearlman

Morrison’s Pacific step-down

Last week’s meeting of Pacific leaders in Tuvalu was supposed to advance Scott Morrison’s effort to improve ties with Australia’s neighbours. Instead, the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum will be remembered as the moment when Morrison’s Pacific “step-up” went backwards.

One measure of the shift can be seen in the response of Fiji’s prime minister, Frank Bainimarama. In May, after Morrison won the election, Bainimarama sent him a warm congratulations and welcomed “a momentous new partnership for the Pacific”. On Saturday, after the summit in Tuvalu, Bainimarama said he had changed his mind about Morrison. “[He] was here only to make sure that the Australian policies were upheld by the Pacific island nations,” Bainimarama told The Guardian.

Morrison was never going to meet the main demand of his Pacific counterparts for greater Australian action on climate change. He had no intention of placing tough limits on Australian polluters; nor would he back a ban on new coalmines, a position endorsed by Labor. But Morrison believed he could water down a final declaration at the forum and soothe tensions by offering cash and depicting the Pacific states, including Australia, as a family. He failed, spectacularly, and exposed the gaping flaw in his Pacific step-up.

The Pacific states will not budge. They worry much more deeply about the threat they face from climate change than Australia does about the threat it faces – from China’s creeping influence. But Morrison cannot see this. He is a climate agnostic from a nation in which climate change is not viewed as a scientific phenomenon but as an outlet for the rough-and-tumble of political debate.

The prime minister’s demonstration of commitment to the Pacific, including increased funding and friendly visits to four states this year, has been well received. But the Pacific’s climate concern is existential. They fear annihilation. So, Morrison’s unwillingness to compromise, which is partly the result of his party’s internal politics, indicates the hollowness of his central appeal to Pacific states – that Australia is part of the Pacific family. Instead, the Tuvalu forum demonstrated that the relationship is transactional, and that the Pacific step-up is aimed at countering China’s growing influence rather than pursuing a broader regional vision. In that sense, it was a diplomatic failure. It suggested that Australia’s ties to its neighbours are thin, and its claim to be a Pacific nation is weak. And if Australia’s Pacific relations depend on funding, it will ultimately be outbid by China, which has much deeper pockets.

Morrison’s intransigence led to several calls for Australia to be ousted from the forum, despite being a founding member in 1971. These calls came from countries such as Tuvalu, which joined in 1978; others, such as Fiji and Samoa, suggested that China may prove a preferable partner to Australia. Former Kiribati President Anote Tong told ABC News: “It’s really about the lesser of two evils, I guess. And at the moment Australia is coming up as the worst of the two evils.”

After his return from Tuvalu, Morrison was asked about the tense state of Australia’s Pacific ties. “Regardless of whatever issues we have to work through,” he responded, “our Pacific family knows that Australia will always be for them.” But for Pacific nations the climate issue is non-negotiable. Morrison has stepped up, and may improve ties around the neighbourhood, but the forum in Tuvalu showed that his policy has limits. It indicated that Australia has no presumptive claim to be the trusted partner of its Pacific neighbours.


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America’s anti-China mood is here to stay

“A critical mass of policymakers, national security hawks, China specialists, and even business liberals now rejects the long-standing conventional wisdom that engagement with China would engender that nation’s domestic liberalisation and peaceful integration into the world order. Instead, China has gotten richer, more confident and, at least to many observers, more authoritarian and more of a threat to US interests.” Joe Renouard, The Diplomat

Strong and free? The future security of Australia’s north

“Until recently, there hasn’t been any real urgency to getting our defence thinking about northern Australia right … Unfortunately, as Australia’s strategic outlook becomes more uncertain in a new era of great-power competition, we now have to think about the defence of the north in a more deliberate and urgent fashion.” John Coyne, The Strategist (ASPI)

China’s South China Sea militarisation has peaked

“Additional overt militarisation doesn’t help China exert control over the South China Sea in peacetime and may not be decisive in wartime. It also encourages a greater and more public US military presence, undermining the islands’ political symbolism.” Steven Stashwick, Foreign Policy

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Indonesia should put more energy into renewable power

“Why does Indonesia remain so reliant on fossil fuels? For an archipelago as large as Indonesia, located along the equator and on top of a ring of active volcanoes, you wouldn’t be wrong in thinking the nation could become one of the world’s leaders in renewable energy.” Kate WaltonThe Interpreter (Lowy Institute)

Defence wants to roll out military tech in Antarctica despite Treaty ban on military activity

“The overarching laws of the southern continent are contained in the sixty-year-old Antarctic Treaty. They prohibit measures of ‘a military nature’.” Jackson Gothe-Snape, ABC News

Free from Australian Foreign Affairs

In denial – defending Australia as China looks south

“Australia’s sphere of influence in the South Pacific has become threadbare, depending for its credibility on the fact that no one has tried to challenge it.” Hugh WhiteHERE

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CLIMATE
AND THE PACIFIC

Our Pacific family knows that Australia will always be for them.

Scott Morrison, prime minister (Australia)

Very insulting.

Frank Bainimarama, prime minister (Fiji)

We are still seeing . . . manifestations of this neo-colonialist approach.

Enele Sopoaga, prime minister (Tuvalu)

Sources: Prime Minister of Australia, The Guardian, RNZ



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