Response to Allan Gyngell’s “History hasn’t ended” Image Credit: Presidential Press and Information Office Kremlin

Response to Allan Gyngell’s “History hasn’t ended”

Correspondence

Allan Gyngell’s essay is commendable for its even-keeled policy prescriptions and rare level-headed tone in discussing our complex and consequential relationship with China.

The China debate in Australia is becoming dominated by competing filters, as Gyngell points out. He warns that politicians voicing their thought bubbles can be outright damaging to the national interest. Our policy on China calls for bipartisanship and should be founded on sound foreign policy principles, not play to the populism of the day.

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Malevolent Republic

Malevolent Republic

A Short History of the New India

Book Review

Twelve years ago, I was sitting in a Shanghai auditorium, waiting to take the stage for a discussion of matters literary. The speaker preceding me was the Indian novelist – and, by then, polemicist – Arundhati Roy.

Roy has a beautiful voice, the kind that makes you want to close your eyes and just listen to her cadences. So I did. But her speech was disturbing. She spoke of political horrors so extreme you would have thought her topic was Nazi Germany. Yet she was speaking about the world’s largest democracy, India.

Recently, reading Kapil Satish Komireddi’s debut book-length polemic Malevolent Republic: A Short History of the New India, I was reminded of that moment in Shanghai when a renowned Indian author seemed to me to lose perspective. But then, I am also reminded of Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen’s celebration of the “argumentative Indian”, and his vision of India as an ongoing religious, political and economic arm-wrestle.

Komireddi’s strident book appears in the wake of last year’s historic election victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress Party – which secured India’s independence in 1947 under the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru and the cajoling of Mahatma Gandhi – was shattered by its worst ever electoral performance, gaining less than 20 per cent of the national vote. For Komireddi, the result was both regrettable and inevitable, a logical outcome of decades of the Congress Party’s corruption, dynastic rule and betrayal of India’s secular foundations for short-term political gain. However, it is the Hindu nationalist BJP, and Modi in particular, who cop the brunt of the author’s ire.

Komireddi’s central thesis is that India is undergoing a creeping, bottom-up political and cultural revolution that could conceivably bring about a Hindu nation-state, a mirror image of Pakistan, in which 200 million Indian Muslims end up as second-class citizens. Unfortunately, recent events – most notably, the introduction of a discriminatory citizenship law that sparked clashes between demonstrators and police – lend credibility to what might otherwise have been dismissed as a fevered, far-left fantasy.

In his first term, the energetic Mr Modi reached out to the world, including India’s near neighbours, blunting fears he would pursue a sectarian agenda. But in August 2019, the Modi government took the extraordinary step of revoking the limited autonomy granted under Article 370 of the Indian constitution to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, and cut lines of communication within the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley. Hindu nationalists cheered. Then, in November, the Supreme Court ruled that the long-disputed religious site at Ayodhya, in India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, would be handed to a trust that will construct a Hindu temple on the ruins of a Muslim shrine destroyed by a Hindu mob in 1992. The hoodlums guilty of that crime – which I was there to witness – have never been brought to justice.

In days gone by, such a ruling would have triggered an immediate backlash from the Congress, but the party is now deeply divided, as is the broader polity after decades of caste-based politics. Komireddi writes, “India’s tragedy is that just when it is faced with an existential crisis, there exists no pan-Indian alternative to the BJP … The values of Hindu nationalism have become the default setting of Indian politics.” He portrays Indian corporates as fawning lackeys of Modi and claims that respected institutions, including the Election Commission of India, the Reserve Bank of India, the judiciary and even the military, have been cowed into silence, unwilling or unable to defend the country’s secular constitution. And he quotes social theorist Ashis Nandy, who once interviewed Modi, describing the current leader of the world’s largest democracy as “a fascist and a prospective killer, perhaps even a future mass murderer”.

At times, Komireddi’s hyperbole gets the better of his analysis, but he writes with insight, passion and an arresting vocabulary of rarely used words, spoilt by almost as many typos. For this reader, Malevolent Republic is most persuasive when it details Modi’s numerous policy missteps: the bungled and ill-considered abolition of small-denomination rupee banknotes; the short-lived rapprochement with India’s neighbours that quickly turned into a series of nasty spats, including a tense military standoff with China in Sikkim in 2017; the bullying of landlocked Nepal that served only to strengthen pro-China sentiment there; and a confused and confusing carbon reduction strategy.

According to news magazine India Today, unemployment is at a forty-year high of 6 per cent, while the Press Trust of India reports that direct foreign investment actually declined in 2019 to a six-year low. The economy is still growing at 7 per cent annually, but observers warn that the potential demographic dividend of a young population may evaporate unless policymakers respond better to local conditions in the country’s twenty-nine states. If they don’t, young voters inspired by Modi could quickly become disillusioned with him.

There are, then, two Narendra Modis in Malevolent Republic. One is an incompetent Dr Jekyll, ruling via a series of ill-considered thought bubbles; the other an evil Mr Hyde spurred by religious nationalism.

Both are plausible, but can they simultaneously be true? And if not, which is the real Modi? Unfortunately, it is a question the author neither asks nor answers.

Indians frustrated with corruption and inefficiency have long dreamt of a messiah who will drag the country forward. Partition-era squabbles over Kashmir and Ayodhya are indeed costly and distracting. Yet for Komireddi, Modi’s sectarianism – his blind eye to the violence of Hindu mobs – will make India less just, more divided along ethnic and religious lines, and dangerously at odds with its neighbours.

In 2014, Sanjaya Baru, a journalist and former media adviser to outgoing prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh, commented that Modi’s rise to power heralded the birth of a second Indian republic. Komireddi cites Baru’s observation that “our nation’s first phase of being a republic lasted from 1950 to 2014, the second phase has begun”. Interpreting this comment, Komireddi adds, “He [Baru] meant that the India founded in 1947 by Congress was dead.”

Modi’s ascendancy may not continue. Voters will punish any sign of hubris or incompetence. But things that were once unthinkable in India are now happening, lending an air of prophecy to Komireddi’s grim observations that “we inhabit the most degraded moment in the history of the Indian Republic” and “if a temple rises on the site of the Babri mosque, it will be as a tombstone for the secular state”.

Modi’s second term is less than a year old, but it is already looking very different from his first. The second Indian republic beckons.

Christopher Kremmer

 

Secret

Secret

The Making of Australia’s Security State

Book Review

In June 2019, the Australian Federal Police executed search warrants on the Sydney office of the ABC and the Canberra home of a NewsCorp journalist, creating headlines across Australia and around the world. The ensuing coverage has created a national debate about security and the media, including press freedom; initiatives such as Australia’s Right to Know coalition; and a parliamentary inquiry into the “impact of the exercise of law enforcement and intelligence powers on the freedom of the press”. The “raids” related to two separate police investigations from 2017 and 2018 into the unauthorised leaking and publishing of national security material.

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THE FIX

Solving Australia’s foreign affairs challenges

THE FIX

John Blaxland on developing a grand compact for the Pacific

“Australia could gain economically and politically from bolstering security and stability in the region, while also helping to limit destabilising external interference.”


THE PROBLEM: The micro states of the Pacific are facing a range of existential challenges. These include: looming environmental catastrophe associated with climate change; inadequate governance; and maritime, territorial and domestic security problems related to or exacerbated by tensions between great powers battling for supremacy in the region. Many of these nations are ill-prepared for the likely consequences and have limited capacity to respond to them. Visionary and respectful Australian engagement is needed to avert disaster.

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Response to Jenny Hayward-Jones’s “Cross Purposes” Image Credit: Pixabay

Response to Jenny Hayward-Jones’s “Cross Purposes”

Correspondence

In the subtitle of her essay for “Cross Purposes” (AFA6: Our Sphere of Influence), Jenny Hayward-Jones poses the question “why is Australia’s Pacific influence waning?” This is a compelling query for a country that has for so long enjoyed a position of dominance and leadership in the region. And it has underpinned Australia’s diplomatic push into the Pacific to reclaim (or retain) the position of partner of choice – whether in the development, security or political sphere.

For the first time in the postcolonial era, Australia has found itself competing with an alternative regional power in China. This contest is having some positive spin-offs for Pacific nations as they are presented with new offers of support and new avenues for development. But there is also the possibility of a dangerous escalation of tensions reminiscent of the Cold War. Australia is projecting its anxieties and concerns about China onto the Pacific and allowing its regional policies to be shaped by this lens.

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Response to Hugh White’s “In Denial” Image Credit: Airman st Class Amanda Morris

Response to Hugh White’s “In Denial”

Correspondence

In his brutally honest assessment, Hugh White is right to suggest that the one constant in Australia’s approach to the Pacific has been the strategic imperative of denying the islands to other powers. In the early 1950s a senior official in the Department of External Affairs, R.N. Hamilton, described the aim of Australia’s Pacific policy as “to exert dominant political influence in the area with a view to maintaining Australian security behind a peripheral screen of islands”. We would be hard-pressed to find a better description of the motivations behind Australia’s current “step-up” in the Pacific, which is driven by concern about the increasing influence of a powerful and worryingly authoritarian China. However, the region has changed greatly since the 1950s, with the emergence of no less than fourteen new island nations.

White is also right to suggest that Australia “should start to treat our smaller close neighbours as independent at last”. It may seem paradoxical but relinquishing crude attempts to exercise a veto over the foreign policy of island states would almost certainly help Australia to maintain its influence in the region. Pacific leaders have long resented Canberra’s tendency to pay attention only when its strategic anxieties are roused. It reminds them that in Australian eyes, Pacific island states don’t matter in their own right. Yet they do matter on the international stage. Far from being powerless, these island nations are significant actors in global politics. They form an important voting bloc at the United Nations and are sovereign over a large swathe of the Earth’s surface. Against significant opposition from powerful countries, at times including the United States, Japan and France, they have successfully pursued their interests: they have secured recognition of their exclusive economic zones under the Law of the Sea treaty, banned driftnet fishing in the South Pacific, negotiated a regional treaty for American boats fishing in their waters, and had New Caledonia and French Polynesia added to the United Nations’ list of non-self-governing territories. Today, island leaders have endorsed a Blue Pacific strategy to work together as an ocean continent to pursue shared interests.

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Response to Hugh White’s “In Denial” Image Credit: Xinhua

Response to Hugh White’s “In Denial”

Correspondence

Hugh White’s article “In Denial” (AFA6: Our Sphere of Influence) is both interesting and provocative.

It is interesting because White explains Australia’s strategic anxiety in relation to our immediate region, and why China might be interested in setting up a military base in the Pacific, better than anyone else I have read.

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The Uninhabitable Earth

The Uninhabitable Earth

Life After Warming

Book Review

The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming
David Wallace-Wells
Allen Lane

“It is worse, much worse, than you think.” So begins The Uninhabitable Earth. This work – eloquent, brutal and unflinching – may well become the foundational text of the global climate response, as Rachel Carson’s 1962 Silent Spring once was for the environmental movement.

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Directorate S

Directorate S

The C.I.A. and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Book Review

Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Steve Coll
Penguin Press

Afghanistan, March 2002: Al Qaeda has been largely defeated and dispersed; the Taliban regime has fallen and its leadership wants to talk; and the international community has come in strongly behind the United States, promising aid and installing Hamid Karzai as interim head of a new Afghan government, pending a new constitution and elections. US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld is unequivocal: “The war is over.”

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Easternisation

Easternisation

War and Peace in the Asian Century

Book Review

Easternisation: War and Peace in the Asian Century
Gideon Rachman
Bodley Head

A Chinese friend here in Beijing was talking the other day about the difference between xifang and dongfang – the West and the East. She said that “of course” Australia, which she hasn’t visited, is a country of xifangren – Westerners – and described their Caucasian physical features. But this stereotype can no longer be applied to Australia, with its many ethnicities, including a million citizens of Chinese heritage.

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